New modeling predicts that direct NHS dental treatment costs in the United Kingdom will rise by 20% to £5.30 billion by 2050, with older adults shouldering an increasing share of the burden, according to a study published in Frontiers in Public Health on June 15.
The research estimates that untreated dental caries could increase by 75.2% and severe periodontal pocketing by 56.7% compared to 2020 rates within the UK adult population. The number of UK residents aged 60 years and over is projected to grow from 16.9 million in 2020 to 22.5 million by mid-century.
The study used a cost-of-illness model combining population projections, disease prevalence data, and treatment costs, focusing on adult dental caries and periodontal disease-related conditions while excluding pediatric care and oral cancers. Each treatment type was costed using Units of Dental Activity (UDA). The findings indicate that routine checkups for people without caries will account for a significant portion of future spending due to population growth.
Costs related to treating caries are expected to increase by nearly a third, reaching £1.46 billion—about one-third of total projected expenditure—with almost a third attributed specifically to untreated dental caries among adults aged over sixty years. Urgent care costs are also predicted to rise by about a quarter, with the largest component stemming from untreated caries in this older demographic.
Periodontal pocketing is forecasted as the single largest cost category at £2.16 billion in 2050—a rise of one-fifth since 2020—primarily driven by mild cases but with severe pocketing costs growing significantly as well. Loss of attachment treatment expenses are expected to increase modestly overall but most sharply for mild forms.
The authors said their approach differs from previous studies because it captures all associated activity rather than only those explicitly coded for each disease subtype, “This study provides the economic rationale that future policy needs to focus on taking the direction of the prevention of poor oral health over reactive treatment and intervention.” They suggest expanding preventive care for older adults could help reduce long-term costs as advanced oral diseases become more common among this group.
