Researchers at Washington University in St. Louis have developed a new index that maps state-level vulnerability to influenza-like illness, according to a March 9 announcement. The findings, published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology, reveal significant differences between states in their risk for infection.
The new index aims to help policymakers identify "hotspots" of vulnerability across the United States so they can create more targeted strategies to prevent the spread of flu. Unlike previous models that mainly use health data, the research team led by Chakrabarty used machine learning algorithms to analyze census data and uncover complex relationships between socioeconomic factors, health indicators, and flu vulnerability.
The index incorporates 39 different socioeconomic and health indicators from census data. These include migration patterns, insurance coverage, and proportions of female and elderly populations. "Vulnerability does not come from a single factor, but is shaped by urbanization, demographics, healthcare access and economic disparities," Chakrabarty said.
Each state has its own unique combination of risk factors mapped out in the research. For example, the District of Columbia is identified as the most at-risk region due to high population density and mobility as well as a sizable uninsured foreign-born population and longer commute times. In contrast, states like New Mexico and Arizona show heightened flu vulnerability because of larger rural populations with higher numbers of aging, female, and Hispanic residents—groups more susceptible to flu complications.
Michigan also ranks high in risk due to its mix of urban transmission challenges and economic hardships in rural areas. Shrabani Sailaja Tripathy, postdoctoral associate in Chakrabarty's lab and lead author of the study, said every state presents a complicated picture but now has access to a tool that can inform decisions about infectious disease preparedness.
"This can help strengthen our epidemic preparedness and response," Chakrabarty said.
