A recent study published in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications has found that European football clubs reduce the market value of players with higher predicted injury risk. The research analyzed data from seven major European leagues between 2006 and 2020, using a two-stage econometric approach to estimate both injury probability and its effect on player valuation.
According to the study, a 1% increase in predicted risk of serious injury results in an average decrease of about 2.29% in a player's market value. This penalty is even greater for players with recurrent or severe injuries.
The researchers used player data including previous injuries, age, height, playing position, footedness, league, and performance statistics such as goals and assists. A logistic regression model first estimated each player's likelihood of future severe injury based on these factors. The resulting probabilities were then introduced into a dynamic log-linear panel model to assess their impact on market value.
The findings show that missing more than ten games in a season significantly increases the probability of future severe injuries. Highly severe past injuries were especially predictive of further recurrent injuries. Age also played a role: injury risk increased early in careers, stabilized during peak years, and declined later on.
The negative financial impact was most pronounced among mid-tier players rather than top stars. The researchers note that these results highlight how anticipated medical vulnerability can have significant economic consequences for clubs.
The authors acknowledge limitations to their analysis. Player market values are crowd-sourced estimates rather than exact transfer fees or contractual amounts. Additionally, some relevant medical and psychological factors could not be included due to data availability.
Despite these constraints, the study suggests that quantifying injury risk could help clubs make better decisions regarding transfers, wage negotiations, insurance policies, and financial planning.
These insights underscore the importance for clubs to consider not only past injuries but also forward-looking assessments when valuing players or negotiating contracts.
