Eli Lilly is projected to reach $94.3 billion in annual revenue by 2027, with 2026 set as a pivotal year for the company’s future direction. This projection, outlined in a recent note from Leerink Partners, represents a significant increase from the $45 billion in revenue Lilly reported in 2024. The anticipated growth has been driven largely by the company's progress in the oral obesity drug market and has contributed to its market capitalization approaching $1 trillion.
Competition between Lilly and Novo Nordisk remains central to developments in this sector. Novo Nordisk recently launched its Wegovy pill after receiving regulatory approval late last year. The company priced the product at $149 per month for lower doses and up to $299 for higher doses.
Both companies previously faced challenges launching injectable weight loss drugs, including supply shortages that led some compound pharmacies to fill demand gaps. Analysts expect that oral drugs will be easier to manufacture than injectables. According to Leerink Partners, Lilly may have an advantage because its candidate orforglipron is a small molecule, making it less complex to produce compared to Novo’s peptide-based therapy.
Lilly’s orforglipron is expected to receive regulatory approval in the second quarter of 2026. In November 2025, Lilly received a priority review voucher from the FDA commissioner, reducing the standard regulatory review period significantly. Analysts at Truist Securities have suggested that orforglipron could be combined with existing GLP-1 products Mounjaro and Zepbound to achieve peak sales exceeding $100 billion.
Another important milestone this year will be results from Novo’s Phase III study comparing CagriSema with Lilly’s tirzepatide—the active ingredient in both Mounjaro and Zepbound. Leerink expects these results during the first quarter of 2026.
The rivalry between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly has seen both companies conduct head-to-head studies of their obesity treatments. So far, "Lilly has come out on top so far, with orforglipron beating Novo’s semaglutide in reducing A1C in patients with type 2 diabetes. Tirzepatide also beat semaglutide in achieving greater weight loss at 72 weeks." However, Leerink noted that "If CagriSema surprisingly demonstrates superiority," there could be a temporary decline in Lilly's share price but described such an event as an opportunity for investors: "as Novo’s product is more difficult to produce and has a record of causing more injection-site reactions."
In addition to orforglipron, Lilly expects Phase III results for another weight loss drug candidate—retatrutide—in the second quarter of 2026. Last December, Lilly reported retatrutide reduced body weight by over 26% on a placebo-adjusted basis and alleviated knee osteoarthritis pain by 75%. The next data release will focus on cardiovascular outcomes.
Policy changes may also influence market dynamics this year. Leerink is monitoring a voluntary Medicare demonstration project scheduled for July that would allow states to cover GLP-1 drugs through negotiated prices; eligible Medicare Part D patients could pay as little as $50 under current proposals. Leerink anticipates this pilot program could pave the way for broader mandatory coverage starting January 2027.
Last year, Eli Lilly secured an agreement with federal authorities addressing drug pricing concerns related to Most Favored Nation status and tariffs.
