When food prices rise sharply during economic crises, urban populations and individuals with lower educational backgrounds are most affected, according to a new study from the University of Bonn. The research focused on the "Asian financial crisis" in the 1990s, when rice prices in Indonesia surged significantly. Researchers found that this price increase had measurable long-term effects on children's growth.
The team from the Center for Development Research (ZEF) at the University of Bonn analyzed data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), which tracks households over time. They compared regional differences in rice price inflation between 1997 and 2000 with body measurements taken from individuals during childhood and later as young adults.
The findings showed a surprising link between higher rice prices and stunted growth in children. Elmira, one of the researchers, explained: "In times of crisis, families save less on calories than on more expensive, nutrient-rich foods. This results in a 'hidden deficiency' of important micronutrients, which slows down height growth without necessarily reducing body weight to the same extent." The study followed children until 2014, when they were aged 17 to 23. For those who were three to five years old during the crisis, there were significant associations with body mass index (BMI) and increased risk of obesity.
Prof. Dr. Matin Qaim, co-author of the study, said: "Deprivation in early childhood can have lifelong effects - growth disorders are easier to measure but are often accompanied by mental development impairments and an increased risk of obesity and chronic diseases." He added: "In the same crisis, undernutrition and obesity can both increase. This underscores the importance of nutrition-sensitive crisis policy: it must specifically protect children in sensitive development stages. If food policy is only concerned about calories, it can miss the real problem."
The impact was stronger in urban areas where people rely more on buying food rather than producing it themselves. Children whose mothers had lower levels of education were also more affected than those with better-educated mothers. Elmira and Qaim emphasized: "The results suggest that crisis aid should not be based solely on poverty lines. Especially in cities and in places with low knowledge about balanced diets, a price shock can worsen the quality of nutrition such that the consequences are long term and irreversible."
The researchers noted that harvest failures, income losses, and price shocks are becoming more common worldwide due to conflicts, pandemics, and extreme weather events. Their analysis provides evidence that economic disruptions can lead to lasting health risks through changes in food prices.
They caution that their results show statistical correlations; over extended periods, not all confounding factors can be completely ruled out.
