Eliminating federal funding for Housing First programs could lead to a significant increase in homelessness across the United States, according to a new study published in JAMA Health Forum by researchers at the University of Colorado Anschutz.
The study estimates that ending support for federally funded permanent supportive housing (PSH) and rapid rehousing (RRH) initiatives would result in 44,590 more people experiencing homelessness within one year. This represents an approximate 5% rise from 2024 levels.
Housing First programs have been part of national policy since federal pilots began in 2003. These initiatives provide stable housing to people experiencing homelessness without requiring sobriety or treatment, and they have demonstrated improved housing stability as well as reduced dependence on healthcare systems.
A July 2025 Executive Order called for eliminating discretionary federal spending on these programs. In response, researchers modeled potential changes in homelessness under several scenarios: full elimination of federal support, removal of funding for PSH only, and removal for RRH only.
The model took into account factors such as program exits, relapse into homelessness, loss of replacement housing units, increased entries into homelessness due to reduced support, and annual mortality rates among people experiencing homelessness.
"These short-term projections highlight only a fraction of the broader harms communities could face and so are likely an underestimate," said Kirk Fetters, MD, first author of the study and infectious disease clinical fellow at CU Anschutz School of Medicine. "Without effective housing interventions, local systems-from hospitals to shelters-will experience mounting pressure."
While the research did not address long-term effects, it emphasizes immediate considerations for policymakers reviewing changes to Housing First funding.
