Rumors about a possible mega-merger between Bristol Myers Squibb and AstraZeneca have drawn attention from industry analysts, who say such a deal could help BMS address upcoming portfolio erosion, according to an Aug. 4 report.
The Financial Times reported over the weekend that both companies, each valued at more than $130 billion, are in discussions regarding a potential merger. If completed, it would be the largest transaction in the pharmaceutical industry's history.
Analysts from William Blair said that both organizations face significant loss of exclusivity for key brands by 2030, totaling approximately $50 billion in revenue reported in 2025. "This would place additional emphasis on operational synergies between the two companies to justify the transaction," William Blair wrote. The firm also noted that BMS is entering "a difficult period of revenue headwinds from loss of exclusivity for several products," including Yervoy and Revlimid. Impending patent expirations for Eliquis and Opdivo are expected to take effect in the U.S. in 2028.
Eliquis generated $14.4 billion globally last year while Opdivo brought in $10 billion; together they accounted for half of BMS’ total $48.2 billion revenue. Leerink Partners projected total BMS revenues at $38.7 billion by 2030 and said, “Additional bolt-on acquisitions may prove difficult to offset the decline of legacy products... Therefore, a large strategic merger could offer a near-term opportunity for value creation for shareholders.”
However, Leerink also questioned whether such a deal would benefit AstraZeneca long-term given its strong pipeline and organic growth outlook: “We believe the strategic and financial rationale is mixed, especially for AZN...the 2028 patent cliffs raise questions around whether a transaction would improve AZN’s long-term growth profile.” Antitrust concerns were also raised due to overlapping products like Imfinzi (AstraZeneca) and Opdivo (BMS), with William Blair suggesting divestitures might be required if any deal proceeds.
Upcoming clinical trial readouts—such as Phase 3 data on several BMS drugs as well as AstraZeneca’s TROP-2 antibody-drug conjugate—could introduce volatility or provide opportunities depending on their outcomes. As of market close Monday, AstraZeneca shares fell about seven percent, while BMS stock remained flat.
