Alnylam reduced its full-year revenue guidance midpoint for its transthyretin franchise by $200 million, leading to a loss of approximately $10.8 billion in the company’s market capitalization on July 31.
The company announced that it now expects its transthyretin therapies to generate between $4.2 billion and $4.5 billion by year-end, down from a previous projection of $4.4 billion to $4.7 billion, according to a second quarter earnings report released Thursday. This revision affects sales expectations for Onpattro, indicated for polyneuropathy associated with transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR-PN), and Amvuttra, approved for both ATTR-PN and ATTR-cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM).
Stifel said in a note Thursday that the revenue cut “significantly surprised” analysts and investors and may create “a near term credibility overhang.” The firm added that this could “raise questions on peak sales potential, even if there’s tailwinds in the competitive landscape.” Following the announcement, Alnylam’s stock fell more than 28% at market close Thursday to $205.48 per share.
Despite noting that the selloff is “probably overdone” since Alnylam’s business is still likely to grow by at least 50% year-on-year, Stifel said, “But to be fair, the guide decrease was disappointing.” William Blair echoed this sentiment: “This is disappointing and there is no way to sugarcoat it,” according to a note released Thursday, which also highlighted that Alnylam missed consensus expectations for TTR revenues—further driving down the stock price.
Alnylam reported worldwide earnings of $1.03 billion for Amvuttra and Onpattro combined in the second quarter—a figure representing 89% year-on-year growth and marking the first time its TTR franchise surpassed the $1 billion mark—but still falling short of analyst expectations. For example, Amvuttra brought in $1.01 billion while consensus estimates were at $1.05 billion, according to Stifel.
“This is the second time ALNY has missed consensus in the past three quarters and as a result, the stock appears to be pricing some credibility discount, and much greater uncertainty on the growth outlook,” Stifel said.
