AstraZeneca’s efforts to reach its $80 billion sales target by 2030 have been complicated by the recent Phase 3 failure of its rare disease drug Wainua, according to a July 22 report. The company must now rely on positive outcomes from two high-risk clinical trials in order to stay on track toward its ambitious revenue objective.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Wainua in December 2023 for the treatment of transthyretin amyloidosis with polyneuropathy. AstraZeneca had counted on expanding the drug’s label to include ATTR cardiomyopathy, projecting peak revenues over $5 billion. However, last year’s sales totaled just $212 million, and the failed trial has derailed plans for broader use of Wainua.
Despite this setback, AstraZeneca remains confident it can achieve its goal. Before the disappointing results, company-sponsored consensus estimated 2030 sales at $82.7 billion; removing ATTR-CM from projections reduced that figure to $80.8 billion. Leerink Partners analysts said management acknowledged that the loss “decreases headroom,” but maintained confidence in reaching the target.
Upcoming data readouts from late-phase trials SERENA-4 and AVANZAR are seen as pivotal events for AstraZeneca’s outlook. SERENA-4 is evaluating camizestrant in first-line HR-positive breast cancer, while AVANZAR is assessing Datroway—already approved for second-line non-small cell lung cancer—in first-line NSCLC patients. Analysts predicted potential peak sales boosts of $2.8 billion for camizestrant and $2.2 billion for Datroway if successful but described both studies as risky.
Guggenheim Securities analysts noted that consensus among peers reached $80 billion last December, but their own estimate stood at $76.4 billion before rising to $79.6 billion in April due to positive Phase 3 data on another asset, then falling back after Wainua’s failure.
CFO Aradhana Sarin said during a February earnings call that AstraZeneca aims to hit its target organically without major mergers or acquisitions, but retains “substantial firepower” should deals become necessary. The roadmap includes existing growth drivers like Imfinzi and Imjudo as well as new launches such as Baxfendy and efzimfotase alfa.
