A new study published in Risk Analysis finds that the spring break period, from late February through early April, carries a significantly higher risk of traffic fatalities and injuries in Florida compared to other times of the year, including the Thanksgiving to New Year's Day holiday stretch. The research was conducted by Dr. Michael T. French, professor and chair of the Department of Health Management and Policy at the University of Miami, and Dr. Gulcin Gumus, associate professor in the Department of Management Programs at Florida Atlantic University.
The researchers analyzed 12 years of county-level crash data from the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles covering all 67 counties between 2011 and 2022. The dataset included more than 42,000 observations. Florida was chosen due to its large population, strong tourism economy, popularity as a holiday destination, and consistently higher traffic fatality rates compared to national averages.
According to the study's findings, fatalities, non-fatal injuries, and serious non-fatal injuries were all elevated during spring break compared to other periods. While fatalities also rose during Thanksgiving through New Year's Day holidays, there was no significant increase in overall non-fatal injuries for that time frame; notably, non-fatal injuries involving younger drivers were actually lower during those holidays.
Young drivers aged 25 or under, out-of-state drivers, and non-motorists such as pedestrians and cyclists faced heightened risks during spring break. Fatality and injury rates for these groups were estimated at 10–15% above baseline levels; crashes involving out-of-state drivers saw fatality or injury counts up to 37% higher than usual during this period. Alcohol-related crashes did not show a statistically significant increase compared with other crash types during spring break, suggesting that increased traffic volume and unfamiliarity with local roads may play a larger role than intoxication alone.
Dr. French said, "This research shows that targeting drunk driving alone is not the best strategy." He continued: "Density management may be a better policy lever. Mitigation strategies like expanding public transportation options and increasing safety enforcement on the roads during spring break could be more effective." Recent measures implemented in Miami Beach—such as DUI checkpoints, greater police presence, and pedestrian protection zones—reflect coordinated approaches recommended by researchers.
