Ian Birkby, CEO of News Medical | News Medical
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Patient Daily | Apr 19, 2026

Study finds long-term excess weight increases cardiovascular risk more than single BMI measure

Long-term exposure to excess weight is a stronger predictor of cardiovascular disease risk than body mass index at a single point in time, according to research published on Apr. 8 by investigators at Mass General Brigham. The study's findings suggest that reducing cumulative exposure to excess weight may lower the likelihood of experiencing heart attacks or strokes.

The research analyzed data from 136,498 participants in the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. All participants had a baseline body mass index above 25 kilograms per square meter and were between ages 25 and 69 for women, and between ages 43 and 80 for men when the study began in 1990. To estimate cumulative exposure, researchers averaged each participant's BMI over a ten-year period from 1990 to 2000 before following their cardiovascular health for an average of nearly seventeen years.

During this follow-up period, about nine percent of participants experienced cardiovascular events such as heart attacks or strokes. The analysis showed that people with higher long-term exposure to excess weight faced greater risks of developing cardiovascular disease, especially among younger age groups. For example, women under age thirty-five with high cumulative exposure had a sixty percent higher risk compared to those with lower exposure.

The effect was less pronounced in older adults; no significant association was found for women over fifty or men over sixty-five years old. "These findings should give patients and their clinicians an impetus to address excess weight to improve their long-term health," said Turchin.

The study adds new evidence supporting early intervention for managing excess weight as part of strategies aimed at preventing future heart-related illnesses.

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