Moderna has announced that its unaudited revenue for 2025 is expected to reach $1.9 billion, which is near the upper end of its most recent forecast range. The company had previously narrowed its full-year revenue expectations to between $1.6 billion and $2 billion in November, after initially setting a broader target earlier in the year.
The updated revenue figure aligns with analyst expectations on Wall Street, according to Jefferies analysts. However, Jefferies noted that further cost reductions are needed for Moderna to achieve its goal of breaking even by 2028. “We think more reductions are needed to instill investor confidence in [management’s] 2028 cash breakeven guidance,” Jefferies wrote in a note released Monday.
Alongside the revenue update, Moderna reported another decrease in projected operating expenses for 2025. The company now expects these costs to be between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, lowering both ends of its previous range by $200 million since November. This continues a pattern from earlier financial updates: after spending $7.2 billion on operations in 2024, Moderna reduced its 2025 expense forecast first by $400 million in August and then by an additional $700 million later in the year.
These ongoing adjustments are part of Moderna’s strategy to cut up to $1.7 billion from annual operating costs by 2027 as it aims for break-even status by 2028. While expenses have declined faster than anticipated this year, Moderna has not changed its operating expense forecasts for 2026 or 2027.
Jefferies estimated that Moderna’s cash burn was about $1.4 billion in 2025 and said maintaining this level could help convince investors that management can meet long-term targets. Still, Jefferies predicts the company will likely reach break-even between 2029 and 2030 rather than hitting the original goal.
Moderna's reliance on COVID-19 vaccine sales remains strong as other product launches—including vaccines for influenza and norovirus as well as oncology and rare disease treatments—are still pending. Sales outside the United States are expected to support overall revenues this year due to contracts with Australia, Canada, and the U.K., while changes among competitors may offer new opportunities starting in 2027.
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