A recent international study published in Nature Medicine has found that the global economic impact of diabetes could reach up to INT$78.8 trillion by 2050 when factoring in the cost of unpaid caregiving. The research, which used a long-term macroeconomic modeling approach, estimated that diabetes alone could cost the world economy INT$10.2 trillion between 2020 and 2050. However, this figure rises significantly once informal caregiving is included.
Diabetes mellitus affects more than one in ten adults worldwide and is especially prevalent in low- and middle-income countries. Factors such as an aging population, rising obesity rates, unhealthy diets, and environmental risks have contributed to the increasing number of cases globally. By 2045, nearly 800 million adults are projected to be living with diabetes.
The COVID-19 pandemic has further increased the burden of diabetes by worsening outcomes for those with the disease and raising the risk of developing it after infection. However, estimates related to pandemic impacts were analyzed separately from the main projections.
Current global healthcare spending on diabetes exceeds $900 billion annually and continues to grow. Previous estimates often failed to account for broader economic effects like changes in labor supply or productivity losses due to chronic illness.
Researchers developed a model simulating how diabetes influences economic growth across 204 countries from 2020 to 2050. The model considered morbidity, mortality, treatment costs, and informal caregiving—where family members provide unpaid care—to deliver a comprehensive assessment of diabetes’s long-term economic effects.
By comparing scenarios where diabetes persists versus one where it is eliminated (for modeling purposes), researchers calculated differences in projected gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of disease burden. The analysis included country-specific data on prevalence, mortality rates, treatment costs, education levels, and workforce composition; where data was missing, regression methods were used for estimation.
Without including informal caregiving costs, global losses are expected at about 0.22% of annual GDP over three decades. When these unpaid care contributions are factored in—estimated using prevailing country wage levels—the total reaches INT$78.8 trillion by mid-century. Sensitivity analyses suggest this figure could range widely depending on assumptions about caregiving time.
The largest absolute burdens are found in the United States, India, and China due to their population sizes and economies. On a per-capita basis or relative to GDP, smaller states like American Samoa and high-income countries such as Australia face higher burdens.
In high-income nations treatment costs form a significant part of losses; lower-income regions experience greater productivity losses instead. Informal caregiving accounts for up to 90% of total economic loss across all regions studied.
The study notes: "This study provides the most comprehensive global estimate to date of the macroeconomic burden of diabetes mellitus by incorporating productivity losses, treatment costs, and informal caregiving across 204 countries."
It also highlights: "The findings reveal that informal caregiving is the most significant and underestimated contributor to diabetes-related economic losses worldwide."
Limitations include potential underestimation due to undiagnosed cases or incomplete healthcare cost data; some figures required imputation based on available information; uncertainty remains around actual time spent on care even under conservative assumptions.
Researchers conclude that addressing prevention efforts along with better support for caregivers—especially in low- and middle-income countries—is essential for reducing both health impacts and associated financial strain globally.
